Finhalo: Daily technical analysis of Bitcoin, foreign exchange, gold, and crude oil (2025September26)

A global oil shock doesn’t just affect energy markets—it reshapes how the world eats, travels, and lives.
The U.S. dollar is no longer just a currency—it’s a strategic weapon shaping global conflicts, financial systems, and the future of economic power.
War now drives volatility, not trends, as oil and gold react violently to geopolitical uncertainty.
AI tokens are emerging as the currency of computation—revealing who truly controls AI power, from chips to cloud, and shaping the future of the global economy.
The escalating Iran–Israel conflict is rapidly becoming a major driver of global markets. As oil supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz increase, investors are positioning around what traders call the “Iran War Trade.” From energy prices and safe-haven assets to global trade and inflation expectations, the geopolitical shock is reshaping the financial landscape.
The global AI chip shortage is driving up costs, straining supply chains, and creating financial market volatility. From GPUs and high-bandwidth memory to data center operations and tech stocks, investors must understand the emerging AI computing crisis to navigate risks and opportunities in the AI era.

AI 算力危機

【Gold】Gold Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Our preference

Pivot level found at 3,728.00

Long positions above 3728.00 with targets at 3761.00 & 3775.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Below 3728.00 look for further downside with 3717.00 & 3705.00 as targets.

Comment

Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

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【WTI】Crude Oil (WTI) (X5) Intraday: bullish bias above 64.50.

Our preference

Pivot level found at 64.50

Long positions above 64.50 with targets at 65.70 & 66.20 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Below 64.50 look for further downside with 64.05 & 63.70 as targets.

Comment

Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.

EURUSD】EUR/USD Intraday: watch 1.1640.

Our preference

Pivot level found at 1.1715

Short positions below 1.1715 with targets at 1.1640 & 1.1610 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Above 1.1715 look for further upside with 1.1735 & 1.1755 as targets.

Comment

A break below 1.1640 would trigger a drop towards 1.1610.

GBPUSDGBP/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.3400.

Our preference

Pivot level found at 1.3400

Short positions below 1.3400 with targets at 1.3300 & 1.3270 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3435 & 1.3470 as targets.

Comment

As long as the resistance at 1.3400 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3300 remains high.

【BTCUSD】Bitcoin / USD intraday: rebound towards 111710

Our preference 

Pivot level found at 108,860

Rebound towards 111710.

Alternative scenario

The downside breakout of 108860 would call for 107760 and 107110.

Comment

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (109566) but below its 50 period moving average (110899).

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