Finhalo: Daily technical analysis of Bitcoin, foreign exchange, gold, and crude oil (2025September30)

A global oil shock doesn’t just affect energy markets—it reshapes how the world eats, travels, and lives.
The U.S. dollar is no longer just a currency—it’s a strategic weapon shaping global conflicts, financial systems, and the future of economic power.
War now drives volatility, not trends, as oil and gold react violently to geopolitical uncertainty.
AI tokens are emerging as the currency of computation—revealing who truly controls AI power, from chips to cloud, and shaping the future of the global economy.
The escalating Iran–Israel conflict is rapidly becoming a major driver of global markets. As oil supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz increase, investors are positioning around what traders call the “Iran War Trade.” From energy prices and safe-haven assets to global trade and inflation expectations, the geopolitical shock is reshaping the financial landscape.
The global AI chip shortage is driving up costs, straining supply chains, and creating financial market volatility. From GPUs and high-bandwidth memory to data center operations and tech stocks, investors must understand the emerging AI computing crisis to navigate risks and opportunities in the AI era.

AI 算力危機

【Gold】Gold Intraday: further advance.

Our preference

Pivot level found at 3,808.00

Long positions above 3808.00 with targets at 3865.00 & 3885.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Below 3808.00 look for further downside with 3785.00 & 3757.00 as targets.

Comment

The RSI calls for a bounce.

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【WTI】Crude Oil (WTI) (X5) Intraday: under pressure.

Our preference

Pivot level found at 64.30

Short positions below 64.30 with targets at 62.60 & 61.65 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Above 64.30 look for further upside with 65.00 & 65.70 as targets.

Comment

The RSI calls for a new downleg.

EURUSD】EUR/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 1.1705.

Our preference

Pivot level found at 1.1705

Long positions above 1.1705 with targets at 1.1755 & 1.1770 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Below 1.1705 look for further downside with 1.1685 & 1.1665 as targets.

Comment

A support base at 1.1705 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

GBPUSDGBP/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

Our preference

Pivot level found at 1.3405

Long positions above 1.3405 with targets at 1.3460 & 1.3485 in extension.

Alternative scenario

Below 1.3405 look for further downside with 1.3385 & 1.3360 as targets.

Comment

Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

【BTCUSD】Bitcoin / USD intraday: as long as 113580 is support look for 116540

Our preference 

Pivot level found at 113,580

As long as 113580 is support look for 116540.

Alternative scenario

Below 113580, expect 112430 and 111750.

Comment

The RSI is above 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The price could retrace. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 114239 and 113091).

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